Handing over Donbas to Russia will not stop the conflict in Ukraine

Russia’s main demand in the negotiations is the transfer of the remaining part of Donbas — roughly 20% of the territory that Ukraine still controls.

The Trump administration has made that demand the center of the bargaining process. But analysts Samuel Charap and Jennifer Kavanagh argue that even if Kyiv gives in, the Kremlin will not be satisfied.

This is reported by Foreign Affairs, which writes that the territorial question has become even more important for Moscow over the course of the war — thousands of Russian soldiers have died for every kilometer. But control over all of Donbas would not resolve the broader concerns that the Kremlin has voiced consistently: that Ukraine could become a forward NATO base or try to retake territory by force.

Full control over Donbas would not limit Ukraine’s future military potential, including its ability to receive modern Western weapons systems. It would not prevent Kyiv from joining Western alliances, nor would it stop NATO forces from being deployed on Ukrainian territory.

Moreover, the security guarantees currently being discussed could further undermine Russia’s sense of security. According to media reports, these guarantees would involve a “coalition of the willing” led by France and the United Kingdom, which would deploy troops in Ukraine after a ceasefire and support an 800,000-strong peacetime army.

Such a result would ultimately intensify Russia’s sense of insecurity, regardless of how much territory Moscow receives, the authors conclude. In their view, any peace agreement that leaves Russia with the same fears is doomed to fail.