Alarming figures: how many “draft dodgers” and migrants have left Ukraine

More than half a million Ukrainian men of conscription age have left the country and have not returned during the full-scale war.

These figures were published by investigative journalists from NGL.media, having analyzed data from the border services of neighboring countries.

According to the analysts’ calculations, about 470,000 men legally crossed the border and remained outside Ukraine. At least another 70,000 people used illegal schemes. In total, this concerns 540,000 citizens who are now in emigration. At the same time, Eurostat data show even larger figures: 1.1 million Ukrainian men received temporary protection in the EU, although this includes those who lived in Europe before February 2022 as well.

The researchers paid special attention to young people aged 18–22. After the government allowed this category to travel in August 2025, migration statistics changed significantly. In just three autumn months (September–November), about 78,000 young men left Ukraine without returning. The most popular destination was Poland, to which more than 120,000 young men went, although half of them later returned.

The situation at the borders differs depending on the country. Poland shows the smallest gap between departures and entries — only 2.6% “non-returners.” But through the borders with Romania and Moldova a significant outflow is recorded: the negative balance here reaches more than 342,000 men. Slovakia, meanwhile, shows anomalous statistics: more people enter than leave, which may indicate that this country is being used as a transit hub for returning home.

Illegal routes remain a significant problem. Romanian border guards reported more than 31,000 detained Ukrainians who crossed the border “through the green border” or via the Tisa River. In total, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service has already detained more than 50,000 violators. Even attempts to escape via the closed border with Belarus are being recorded.

Experts predict that some of the migrants will return, but not soon.

The labor shortage is already noticeable: a third of employers reported a lack of workers, especially in sectors where young people traditionally worked.