American military officials believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are improperly distributing their forces and firepower – NYT

American officials have attributed the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive to improper distribution of forces and firepower.

This information is reported in an article by The New York Times.

Ukrainian forces are spread too thin; they should focus on the main front of the operation, which is in the south.

The primary goal of the counteroffensive is to disrupt Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine and cut off the land corridor to Crimea. However, instead of fully concentrating on this task, Ukrainian commanders divided their forces and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, according to American officials.

As a result, there are more UAF forces near Artemivsk and other eastern cities than near Melitopol and Berdyansk in the south, even though strategically the southern front is much more important, officials say.

American military strategy experts had previously advised Ukraine to focus on advancing towards Melitopol, Kiev’s main priority, and breaking through Russian minefields and other defensive structures, even if it meant increased losses in personnel and equipment for the UAF.

Only a change in tactics and a sharp breakthrough can alter the pace of the counteroffensive, stated one American government representative, who spoke anonymously, like several other Western officials interviewed for this article.

Another American official stated that the UAF forces are too scattered and need to concentrate their combat power in one place.

Nearly three months have passed since the beginning of the counteroffensive, and Ukrainians might heed this advice, especially considering the mounting losses and Russia’s continued numerical and technological superiority.

American officials observe signs that Ukraine has started to transfer some of its most experienced combat units from the east to the south. However, even the most experienced units have been repeatedly reorganized due to heavy losses. The pool of senior commanders is constantly shrinking. Some platoons are primarily staffed with veteran soldiers who have returned to service after being wounded.

However, some analysts consider the progress to be minimal and also belated. Battles are predominantly taking place on open plains, which favor the defending side. Additionally, Russians fight from concealed positions that Ukrainian soldiers often only discover from just a few meters away. Whenever the Ukrainians manage to clear a field of mines, the Russians launch another rocket in the same area within a few hours, scattering even more mines.

Ukrainian leaders, nonetheless, stand by their strategy and force distribution, asserting that they are effectively fighting both in the east and the south. According to them, a significant number of troops are necessary for continued pressure on Artemivsk and defense against coordinated Russian attacks in the northeast. Ukrainian commanders have to compete for resources, so they have their own ideas about where they can achieve success.

Criticism of the Ukrainian counteroffensive from the American side is often dismissed on the grounds that it comes from officers who have never participated in such large-scale and intense combat. Furthermore, American military doctrine has never been tested in conditions like those in Ukraine, where Russian electronic warfare means disrupt communication and satellite signals, and no army has been able to establish air superiority.

American representatives have stated that Ukraine has about a month to a month and a half left before the offensive halts due to heavy rainfall. In August alone, Ukraine postponed at least one operation due to rain. Rainy weather will not completely stop the fighting, but if Ukraine manages to breach Russian lines in the coming weeks, mud will hinder further advances and prevent a swift capture of territory following a breakthrough, officials emphasized.

Some American officials hope that by winter, Ukraine will have progressed about halfway to the Sea of Azov, after which cold weather will pause the fighting. One of them called this a “partial success.” However, other analysts doubt that the counteroffensive will even achieve this rather modest goal.