“Catastrophic defeat’ of Ukraine — the West fears the worst-case scenario, — Financial Times

Western leaders are expressing growing concern that the situation on the front lines in Ukraine may sharply deteriorate in the coming months.

According to the Financial Times, a number of influential officials and analysts are warning that by autumn, the Ukrainian army could be on the brink of exhaustion.

As reported by the publication’s chief international columnist Gideon Rachman, Western intelligence assessments indicate that Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) may reach a critical breaking point within six months unless they receive substantial new military aid. Meanwhile, according to the same forecasts, Russia is expected to maintain its current level of offensive operations for at least a year—without needing a major increase in resources.

But Ukraine’s problems go beyond just a shortage of weapons. Increasingly, reports mention a personnel crisis and public morale fatigue. After more than two years of war, Ukrainian society is worn down—especially amid ongoing Russian strikes on infrastructure and cities. Against this backdrop, experts are also noting the lack of a clear strategy from Kyiv: no defined victory plan, and not even a realistic scenario for ending the war.

Some Ukrainian officials are increasingly urging Western allies to push for a ceasefire. However, few in Europe believe that Russia is currently interested in negotiations. One senior EU official believes that Moscow is focused on a strategic goal—the capture of Odesa—which would effectively cut Ukraine off from the sea, delivering a devastating economic and military blow.

Amid all this, doubts are also growing in Washington. A recent Pentagon statement about cutting U.S. spending on Ukraine has raised alarm in Kyiv. Without urgent and significantly increased assistance, the Ukrainian army, some Western experts fear, could face a “catastrophic defeat.”

Support for Kyiv appears to be gradually losing its once-unshakable foundation. More and more, there are signs of Western fatigue—despite public declarations of solidarity, internal pressures such as inflation, elections, and declining public interest in a drawn-out conflict with no clear resolution are beginning to take a toll.