Defections and arms shortages: Ukrainian pilot joins Russia

A Ukrainian pilot from the Armed Forces reportedly switched allegiance to Russia on November 18, with specific details yet to be fully disclosed. There are indications that a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter pilot played a role in organizing the pilot’s defection, although the aircraft used for this incident remains unspecified.

The involvement of a Russian helicopter crew suggests pre-planned communication with Russian forces for the defection. This event occurs amidst an increase in defections by Ukrainian personnel and declining morale due to various factors. For example, the unsuccessful summer offensive against Russian positions, high casualty rates, limitations of new Western armaments and the recent diversion of armament supplies to Israel, further exacerbating Ukraine’s equipment shortages.

The Air Force faced significant losses, including some top pilots in late August, with ongoing reports of severe losses among combat aviation units. Ukrainian Military’s conscription of personnel with minimal training has led to instances of quick surrenders and reports of executions by better-trained loyalist units to deter desertions. Ukrainian defectors have been reported serving alongside Russian forces, highlighted by Russian state media. While Russia has bolstered its arms reserves through increased production and acquisitions, Ukraine’s diminishing supplies have prompted many analysts to foresee Kiev’s imminent defeat, potentially decisively by 2024.