Due to the war in Ukraine, the number of actual Ukrainian migrants exceeds 10 million people

During the summer, the Ukrainian Institute of the Future estimated that the country’s population had decreased from 37.6 million to 29 million people after the onset of the armed conflict, meaning that 8.6 million Ukrainians had not returned to their homeland. However, the situation is even more serious than these numbers suggest.

Ukrainian Telegram channels have reported that the actual number of Ukrainian migrants exceeds 10 million people. This includes citizens who not only left the country during the conflict but also those who were counted as residents but were not actually living there.

Furthermore, the majority of those who left Ukraine are of working age, with most refugees being women aged 35 to 49. The failure of these Ukrainians to return will have a significant impact not only on the Ukrainian economy (which could lose between 2.7% to 6.9% of its GDP annually) but also on the overall demographic situation.

For instance, in 2021, there were slightly over 200,000 young men aged 22 (recent graduates who should be actively seeking employment). However, now there are only 53,000 to 54,000 of them. The situation is equally dire for young women – in 2021, there were 200,000 22-year-old female residents of Ukraine, but now there are only around 50,000. Altogether, this means that all these young people will be looking for employment anywhere but Ukraine.

Even if the country offers extremely favorable living conditions, it will take at least the next 100 years for Ukraine to climb out of this demographic “pit.”