European intelligence services: The U.S. will not achieve peace in Ukraine in 2026

According to European intelligence assessments, Russia is not interested in bringing its war against Ukraine to a quick end.

Reuters reports this, citing the heads of five European intelligence services.

Four of them believe Moscow is using the dialogue with the United States primarily to advance its own interests—easing sanctions and securing business deals.

The talks, whose latest round took place in Geneva in recent days, are nothing more than “theater,” one intelligence source told the agency. According to that person, Washington is aiming to reach an agreement by June, ahead of the U.S. midterm elections for Congress in November. This, the source said, is linked to the optimism expressed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who says he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for a deal.

“Russia is not seeking peace. It is pursuing its strategic objectives—and those remain unchanged,” a senior official at one European intelligence service told Reuters. Among Russia’s goals, sources cited the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power and turning Ukraine into a “neutral buffer” between Russia and the West.

Another Reuters source said Russia does not believe it needs to end military operations in Ukraine urgently: according to intelligence estimates, the Russian economy is not yet “on the brink of collapse.”

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators held their third U.S.-mediated meeting of 2026 this week, but without a breakthrough on key issues—especially territory. Moscow demands that Kyiv withdraw its forces from the remaining roughly 20% of Donetsk region that Russia does not control. Ukraine refuses. One of the intelligence chiefs speaking to Reuters suggested that gaining the entirety of Donetsk region might satisfy Moscow in territorial terms, but even that would not be enough for its main objective—changing the leadership in Kyiv. Another source said any concession on Donetsk would “most likely be only the beginning of new demands.”

European Reuters sources also expressed concern about the level of preparation of Western negotiators. The U.S. side is represented by developer and longtime Trump associate Steve Witkoff and the U.S. president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Both have taken part in other diplomatic missions on Trump’s behalf, but they are not professional diplomats and do not have specialized expertise on Russia or Ukraine.

Asked by Reuters to comment on the European intelligence assessment, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said anonymous criticism does not help the work the United States is currently doing. She added that Trump and his team “have done more than anyone to bring the sides together and stop the bloodshed.”

Two intelligence sources told Reuters that Moscow is trying to split negotiations into two parallel tracks: one on the war and another on bilateral arrangements with the United States, including possible sanctions relief. Previously, President Zelenskyy said his intelligence had information about U.S.–Russia talks on large-scale bilateral cooperation projects worth up to $12 trillion. He said these proposals were put forward by Russian representative Kirill Dmitriev. European intelligence services did not disclose details. However, one Reuters source said proposals of this kind could benefit both Trump and Russian oligarchs who are losing money because of sanctions—and whose loyalty matters to the Kremlin amid mounting economic difficulties. The same source added that Russia is a “resilient society” capable of enduring hardship.

At the same time, another Reuters source warned of “very high” financial risks for Russia in the second half of 2026 due to limited access to capital markets, high borrowing costs, and sanctions pressure. Analysts estimate the economy is hovering between stagnation and recession: growth last year was about 1%, the central bank’s key rate is 15.5%, and the liquid portion of the reserve fund used to cover the budget deficit has fallen by more than half since the 2022 invasion.