Fewer and fewer: demographers have released a new forecast of how many Ukrainians may return home after the war ends

Hopes for a mass return of Ukrainians from abroad after the end of the war are gradually fading.

Where experts previously spoke about the possible return of at least half of refugees, demographers now cautiously estimate the potential at only around 30%—and even that figure remains uncertain.

This was reported by Oleksandr Hladun, deputy director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of Quality of Life of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. According to him, forecasts have been becoming less optimistic year by year.

“Unfortunately, we are no longer talking about a 50% return. The maximum we can still count on is about 30%,” the scientist noted.

He stressed that the idea that all Ukrainians live comfortably abroad is mistaken. Many people face serious difficulties, but remain outside Ukraine for a key reason—security considerations. Fear of the war now outweighs the desire to return home.

According to Hladun, two decisive factors will influence the scale of return. The first is the duration of the war. The longer Ukrainians stay abroad, the more deeply they integrate into new societies: children attend local schools, adults find jobs, learn the language, and ties with Ukraine gradually weaken.

The second, and most important, factor is the way the war ends. The full liberation of occupied territories would be a powerful incentive to return, because people would feel there is a prospect of a stable and safe future. By contrast, the expert calls the “frozen conflict” scenario—when hostilities merely stop along the front line—the worst outcome for the demographic situation.

“If society perceives such a ceasefire as a short pause before a new escalation, people will not take risks and will not return, especially with children,” the demographer said.

Despite the pessimistic assessments, even 30% would still mean millions of citizens who could become the backbone of the country’s recovery. However, the decisive role will be played not only by economic incentives, but above all by real and effective security guarantees for Ukraine after the war ends.

It is also noted that, according to the National Bank’s forecasts, Ukrainians are expected to begin returning from 2027, and the process will be slow.