IMF excludes Ukraine from EU enlargement report, grouping Moldova with Western Balkans

In a new International Monetary Fund report published on Monday, Moldova was grouped with Western Balkans countries in an analysis of the economic benefits of EU membership. Ukraine, despite holding EU candidate status, was not included in the study.

The report, titled “Crossing Borders: How to Make the Most of EU Accession,” focuses on the Western Balkans and Moldova as countries “sharing a number of common economic characteristics.” This was stated by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at a presentation organized by the European Policy Centre in Brussels. Ukraine was excluded from the study — the report’s authors cited its “significantly larger size and ongoing military conflict.”

“We recognize the importance of continuing engagement with other countries aspiring to join the union, including Ukraine,” Georgieva said in her prepared remarks.

As a result, in the context of discussions about bloc enlargement, Chisinau has effectively been separated from Kyiv — despite both countries jointly pursuing EU membership since 2022. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos singled out Moldova in July as the “best performer” in accession negotiations, according to Kyiv Independent. Ukraine’s parliament, meanwhile, has been struggling to advance the reforms demanded by both the EU and the IMF. On September 7, EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis held talks with Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky, pressing Kyiv to adhere to the agreed reform schedule.

The report’s economic findings paint an optimistic picture for candidate countries that consistently implement reforms. Georgieva presented data showing that in previous rounds of enlargement, GDP per capita in regions that joined the EU grew by more than 30% over a decade compared to similar regions that remained outside it. According to the new report, candidate countries are capable of replicating this result: GDP per capita could grow by 30–35%. About two-thirds of this income gain comes from productivity growth rather than capital inflows alone. The report identifies three equally important factors of economic convergence: domestic reforms based on EU legislation (acquis), access to the single market, and effective use of EU funds.

Separately, Kos drew attention to what she described as unprecedented external threats to the enlargement process.

“For the first time in history, we have opponents of the enlargement process,” she said, naming Russia and warning that China is “gradually entrenching itself in our candidate countries” through corporate investments that could open Beijing’s access to the EU single market once those countries join the bloc.

Kos also criticized those she called “MAGA ideologues trying to convince us that European civilization is in decline.” In her words, a prolonged stay of candidate countries outside the bloc would allow adversaries to “interfere and turn them against us.” Despite Ukraine’s exclusion from the report, Kos said she had “no doubt” about the country’s ability to achieve comparable economic prosperity, calling Ukraine a potential “new Wirtschaftswunder” after EU accession — provided the necessary reforms are carried out.