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October 2, 2023There are doubts in the West about the possibility and necessity of reclaiming Crimea for Ukraine through military means.
This information reported according to sources in diplomatic circles reported by The Times.
Some diplomats view Crimea as Ukraine’s “most valuable card” to play in negotiations.
The Times reports that Ukraine has a plan for the military reclamation of Crimea through a siege. However, the publication questions whether Ukraine will be able to approach the artillery range of the peninsula’s supply lines by winter.
“Behind the scenes, there are serious concerns about what comes next. Besides talk of military action, it is less clear how the peninsula can be liberated and whether it is even wise,” the publication states.
According to the assessment of journalists, many of the two million people living in Crimea consider themselves Russian.
A source from Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs told the article’s author, “Crimea could become our own Northern Ireland.”
“In Kyiv, there are those who question the wisdom and practicality of getting Crimea back. Integrating the population of the peninsula will likely be difficult. While there have been talks of reconciliation, others have been uncompromising,” the publication notes.
The article recalls statements such as the advisor to the head of the Office of the President, Mikhail Podolyak, calling for “eradicating everything Russian,” and the plan from the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Alexei Danilov, to rename Sevastopol, revoke property rights, and restrict voting rights for some residents of Crimea.
The publication speculates that many current residents of Crimea might leave if it were to return to Ukraine’s control, making it challenging to maintain infrastructure. Bringing law enforcement officers from mainland Ukraine “could make local residents feel unfree and subordinate.”
Meanwhile, Moscow is likely to do everything possible to fuel information warfare.
Among the options Western officials are discussing regarding Crimea’s future are demilitarization, “joint dominion,” or even conducting a “new and genuine referendum” on the peninsula’s future.