NATO planners: Europe cannot sustain a prolonged war with Russia

Military planners working alongside NATO have warned that Europe is not capable of sustaining a prolonged war of attrition with Russia — due to insufficient combat readiness, industrial gaps, and weakening public support for defense spending.

The assessment, first published by The Guardian, was delivered at a closed European Defense Roundtable organized by the Munich Security Conference in the United Kingdom.

The warning was characterized as a candid admission by senior defense officials that military gaps on the continent remain very deep — even as Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its fifth year and Moscow’s hybrid operations against European states intensify.

Hybrid warfare and political fragmentation

Roundtable participants expressed concern that Russia may be gaining the upper hand in its hybrid war against Europe, undermining NATO’s collective capabilities before any conventional conflict begins. According to The Guardian, growing support for right-wing populist parties in Europe’s largest military powers threatens to disrupt coordination in the area of collective defense.

A recently elected member of the British cabinet acknowledged that the West had “inadequately” informed the public about the scale of the hybrid confrontation with Russia. A British diplomat stated that successive prime ministers had failed to properly explain the nature of the threat — and that ministers now find themselves having to convince “unprepared voters to cut social spending in order to fund defense.” Participants also pointed to the risk that a populist wave expected in Poland, France, and Italy could undermine European unity.

Industrial gaps and the U.S. factor

Europe’s defense-industrial capacity remains a key vulnerability. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the defense industries of European countries and allies must increase production, noting that Russia has already put its economy on a war footing. Nine NATO member states have agreed to jointly develop a common 155mm artillery shell, and six countries have launched a project to create ground-based precision strike systems.

The situation is further complicated by Washington’s diminishing role. During the recent NATO exercise “Northern Viking” near Iceland, for the first time in the history of the exercise neither American ships nor aircraft participated — European and Canadian forces operated under French command. The U.S. Navy has largely redeployed to the Middle East and the Caribbean, leaving the patrolling of the North Atlantic to European and Canadian vessels.

E5 and Ukraine’s possible role

As the United States scales back its commitments in Europe, proposals are gaining momentum for the E5 group — comprising the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland — to take on a new coordinating role. Within the group, discussions are underway about a possible “inclusion of Ukraine in the context of ceasefire negotiations,” with officials describing Kyiv as possessing “the largest and most capable army in Europe.”