Neutral status, path to the EU, Russian Crimea. WSJ publishes terms of the peace agreement not signed at the beginning of the war

The Wall Street Journal has published the terms of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, nearly agreed upon but never signed in April 2022 – six weeks after the start of the war.

This information is discussed in an article on the publication’s website. 

The main points of the deal were as follows:

• Ukraine could become a member of the EU but could not join military alliances such as NATO. In other words, the country’s neutral status was envisaged with the prospect of EU membership.
• Of all the occupied territories, only Crimea would remain under unconditional Russian control. The future of the so-called “LNR” and “DNR” was to be determined in personal negotiations between Zelensky and Putin, which never took place. As for other territories seized by Russia after February 24, 2022, the article does not mention them, but previously, some negotiators stated that Russian troops would withdraw from them.
• Foreign weapons and troops could not be sent to Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian army was supposed to be reduced to a certain size: Russia wanted no more than 85,000 military personnel, 342 tanks and 519 artillery pieces. The range of missiles was to be limited to 40 km. Ukraine, on the other hand, wanted 250,000 military personnel, 800 tanks and 1,900 artillery pieces. Arestovich previously stated that this issue also had to be agreed upon in a personal meeting between Zelensky and Putin.
• The Russian language was to be used alongside Ukrainian in the official sphere. However, Ukraine did not agree to this point.
• Russians did not want the International Criminal Court to investigate war crimes in Ukraine. Ukraine did not agree to this point.
• Ukraine did not agree to the cancellation of all mutual sanctions.

The security of Ukraine under this agreement was to be guaranteed by foreign states, including the US, UK, China, France and Russia. These countries would be responsible for defending Ukraine if the agreement were violated. However, as long as the agreement was in effect, the guarantors would be required to “suspend the operation of international treaties and agreements incompatible with Ukraine’s permanent neutrality,” including any promises of bilateral military assistance. International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol.

Russia also wanted to add Belarus as a guarantor, while Ukraine wanted Turkey.

In the event of an attack on Ukraine, Russia proposed that all guarantor states agree on a response, but Kyiv was against it because such a condition “would mean that a unified response was unlikely if Russia itself became the aggressor.” In the event of an attack, Ukraine wanted its airspace to be closed, requiring the guarantor states to establish a no-fly zone and provide weapons. Russia did not agree to this.

The WSJ comments that this document “appears to be largely based on the 1990 treaty that created unified Germany.”

Negotiations continued until June 2022, including via Zoom.

The WSJ indicates that they ended at the initiative of Ukraine: “Ultimately, no deal was reached.”