NYT revealed the draft Istanbul agreement: why Ukraine and Russia could not reach an agreement in 2022

The full version of the draft peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, negotiated in Istanbul in the spring of 2022 but never signed, has been published for the first time.

The document was made public by The New York Times.

The project, titled “Treaty on the Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine,” consists of 18 articles and six annexes. The last of these annexes, which was published by the newspaper, confirms details previously reported by the media and stated by participants in the negotiations.

The text of the draft peace agreement indicates that the parties had reached consensus on a significant number of fundamental issues by April 15, the date of the latest version of the agreement. By this date, the mass killings in Bucha, Kyiv Oblast, were already known. This means that negotiations continued even after the Bucha tragedy, suggesting that the massacre was not the actual reason for the breakdown in the agreements, contrary to frequent claims.

Key points of the agreement reached by Ukraine and Russia as of April 15, 2022, include:

1. Neutrality of Ukraine: Ukraine would become a neutral state.
2. Security Guarantees: The security of neutral Ukraine would be guaranteed by the permanent members of the UN Security Council: the United Kingdom, China, Russia, the United States, and France. Russia proposed adding Belarus, while Ukraine suggested Turkey.
3. Military Support: The guarantor states committed to providing military support to Ukraine in case of an attack. However, these guarantees did not apply to Crimea (thus implicitly recognizing it as Russian) or certain territories specified in annex 6, where agreement had not been reached. This likely referred to the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied by that time. Some reports indicated that this issue was to be addressed in a personal meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. Concerning the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Putin indicated readiness to withdraw Russian troops from there.
4. Disagreements on Security Guarantees: There were disagreements on the security guarantees. Russia insisted that the guarantor countries should enter the war on Ukraine’s side only if all guarantor countries agreed, which Ukraine opposed, fearing that Russia could block military support from other guarantors in case of another invasion. Reports suggested that the U.S. was also reluctant to provide such strong and specific security guarantees to Ukraine, contributing to the breakdown of the negotiations.
5. Nuclear-Free Status: Ukraine committed to maintaining its non-nuclear status.
6. Sanctions and Legal Claims: Both Ukraine and Russia would lift sanctions imposed on each other and withdraw all legal claims in international courts.
7. Russian Language: Ukraine agreed to make Russian an official language alongside Ukrainian.
8. Condemnation of Nazism: Ukraine would condemn Nazism in all its forms and agree to repeal several laws and regulations, particularly those concerning the role of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) and the status of their veterans.
9. Military Limitations: The sides discussed limiting the size of the Ukrainian army and its armaments, but no agreement was reached on specific numbers by the time the document was prepared.