Pro-Russian parties may come to power: the upcoming elections in Slovakia may lead to a weakening of Western support for Ukraine

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Slovakia may weaken Western support for Ukraine, as it is expected that pro-Russian parties could return to power in this Central European country, as reported by FT.

Successive governments in Bratislava have so far provided military support to Kyiv in its opposition to Russian forces. However, populist and far-right parties to varying degrees sympathetic to the Kremlin have a good chance of joining the government formed after the early elections scheduled for September 30. This raises new concerns that another member of the European Union and NATO may significantly reduce its support for Kyiv.

According to polls, the leading party is Smer, the party of former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who resigned in 2018 due to anti-corruption protests triggered by the murder of an investigative journalist and his fiancée. According to forecasts, Smer is expected to garner 20% of the vote but it will need to form a coalition to govern the country.

The upcoming elections are “one of the very few elections in which assistance to Ukraine has become part of the political campaign and in which the leading party opposes this aid,” said Dominika Hajdu, a senior analyst at the Slovak analytical center Globsec.

“These are elections that can significantly affect the unity of the European Union and NATO on the issue of supporting Ukraine.”

During his campaign, Fico has been emphasizing the high price that Slovaks have to pay for assisting Ukraine in its struggle against Russia, a country that was previously a major energy supplier to Slovakia. Fico also claims that he is trying to protect national sovereignty from pressure from NATO and criticizes the government for supplying MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine without parliamentary approval.

The far-right “Republic” party and the Slovak National Party, which could become partners in Fico’s coalition, also employ pro-Kremlin rhetoric and openly advocate against providing assistance to Ukraine. Together, these two nationalist parties are expected to garner approximately 15% of the votes.

While Smer will likely need other coalition partners, poll results show that “it will now be difficult to form a government without Fico,” said Slovak analyst Milan Nič of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

If Fico succeeds in forming a skeptical government regarding aid to Ukraine, it will strengthen pro-Russian positions within the European Union and NATO. Within these blocs, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a longtime ally of Vladimir Putin has become somewhat of an outlier as he has voiced support for Russia’s president and has delayed agreements on several packages of EU anti-Russian sanctions. With Fico as an ally, Orbán may be able to resist further restrictions against Putin’s regime indefinitely.

“Slovakia may end up with a government in the style of Orbán with a similar foreign policy stance and this will have a serious impact on the ability of the European Union to continue supporting Ukraine,” said Michal Šimečka, leader of the liberal “Progressive Slovakia” party, which, according to polls could garner around 15% of the vote.

A survey conducted in the region by Globsec in March found that 34% of respondents believed that the West was responsible for the Ukrainian conflict, as it provoked Moscow. This is the highest percentage among eight Central and Eastern European countries surveyed.