The Ukrainian Armed Forces have exhausted their options for conscription, and time for victory is running out – The Telegraph

The shortage of personnel could become fatal for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Об этом сообщает The Telegraph.

If Ukraine has no one to conscript, the West won’t be able to help it in any way. Growing losses and autumn rains will undermine its combat readiness. The victory of Russia is not far off, the article’s author notes.

The war in Ukraine has turned into a battle of attrition, fought under conditions clearly favorable to Moscow. Up until now, Kyiv has managed well despite the lack of Western weaponry, but the shortage of personnel it’s currently facing could be fatal.

In recent weeks, the long-awaited counteroffensive by Kyiv has gained the much-needed momentum – the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have achieved success in heavy battles near the strategically important village of Rabitino. If successful, this will open the road to the Sea of Azov. If Ukrainian forces manage to reach the coast, they will destroy the overland bridge connecting mainland Russia to Crimea, potentially gaining the ability to strike Moscow.

However, the Ukrainian forces are not only contending with massive defenses and artillery fire. They are also battling against time. Having crossed the formidable Russian minefields four weeks ago, Kyiv is desperately trying to capitalize on its initial successes before growing losses and autumn rains undermine its combat capability.

The summer has been rainy, and autumn months traditionally bring heavy downpours that turn the soft soil of Eastern Europe into thick mud, bogging down tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery. All of this could practically halt significant progress. Armies would be at a standstill, and the Russians would have time to expand their network of deep trenches and multi-layered minefields, making it challenging for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to reclaim territory.

Moreover, perhaps even more crucial is the heavy toll Ukraine’s population is paying due to the conflict. At the start of the conflict, the official strength of the Russian Armed Forces was one million personnel, with estimates from some analysts suggesting the actual number was around 700,000 to 800,000 individuals.

Another two million men – former conscripts and contract soldiers – were in reserve. Additionally, before the Kremlin raised the age limit to 31, there were about seven million men of draft age (18-26 years old) in the country.

However, prior to full-scale war, Ukraine’s population was 44 million. By the end of the first year of hostilities, around six million citizens had fled the country. The country’s armed forces consist of around 200,000 active-duty personnel, with a similar number in reserve. Additionally, about 1.5 million men of fighting age could be mobilized.

It’s a harsh yet straightforward calculation: Kyiv lacks manpower. According to estimates from American sources, Ukrainian forces have lost up to 70,000 individuals killed in action, with another hundred thousand wounded. The ratio is favoring Moscow, and Kyiv struggles to replace soldiers in the face of what seems like an endless influx of conscripts.

There are not enough volunteers to maintain the army’s combat readiness – those most eager to fight have long since enlisted. The latest slogan of the conscription campaign is: “It’s normal to be afraid,” but many still try to avoid mobilization and stay off the front lines.

Despite all the challenges that the Kremlin has faced during forced conscription, hundreds more men could still be mobilized in the country. In terms of manpower, Ukraine simply has nothing to counter with, and the West cannot provide it.