Russian forces forming encirclement in Vovchansk district: several Ukrainian battalions at risk

In the Vovchansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces are forming an operational encirclement that could trap several Ukrainian Armed Forces battalions. At the same time, during a retreat from Baksheevka, Ukrainian troops suffered casualties after detonating their own minefields.

This was reported to aif.ru by military expert and retired captain first rank Vasily Dandykin.

According to Dandykin, the area of the forming cauldron is quite substantial, and active flanking operations by Russian units give grounds to expect a serious outcome.

“It is quite likely that a considerable number of personnel could be encircled. The area there is significant. If it proves possible to close the ring from two sides — and there is the capability to do so — we could be talking about several battalions for certain,” the expert noted.

The terrain, according to Dandykin, will leave those encircled with no opportunity to shelter in underground bunkers, as was the case in the Donbas battles.

“The fate of those caught in the cauldron will be unenviable. They will be destroyed; some may possibly surrender. The conditions for shutting themselves in basements and sitting it out — those don’t exist there the way they did in the Donbas. There are some, but not nearly as many. The natural and other conditions there are different,” he explained.

In the expert’s view, the Ukrainian command, facing a shortage of forces, will attempt to break through to those trapped by sharply increasing the use of FPV drones. However, the soldiers themselves, sensing hopelessness, may begin an unorganized withdrawal.

“What will they do? They will try to throw in some reinforcements, though that is difficult. They will step up drone activity to prevent the pincers from closing. But one way or another, the fighters will have to retreat, possibly without orders. They are being struck constantly from both flanks. Soon separate groups will start appearing that will independently try to break out of the encirclement,” Dandykin said.

A separate sign of chaos in the enemy’s ranks was the episode involving the retreat from Baksheevka, which was liberated the day before. During the withdrawal from the settlement, Ukrainian troops suffered casualties on their own minefields. Dandykin stressed that such incidents are far from isolated. The reason is the absence of minefield maps among commanders and a lack of coordination with drone operator units, who carry out chaotic mining.

“The unit commander simply had no minefield map. It is quite likely that when drone operators drop mines from the same ‘Baba Yaga’ and other copters, they may not inform the infantry about the obstacles they have placed. So it turned out that, while retreating, the soldiers hit their own mines,” the expert explained.

Previously installed engineering obstacles are turning into a deadly trap for the Ukrainian troops themselves, especially when a withdrawal takes place at night.

“And if it happened at night, then there are no questions at all. Loss of control and panic led to them being blown up by what they had installed themselves,” Dandykin concluded.