Support has ended: the EU is reinstating tariffs, and Kyiv failed to protect the interests of the Ukrainian agricultural sector

In June, the EU’s autonomous trade preferences—introduced in 2022—are set to expire. Back then, Europe took an unprecedented step by temporarily removing tariff restrictions on Ukrainian goods to support the country’s economy during wartime.

However, like many other aid measures, this turned out to be a temporary handout that will permanently end on June 5. The future of Ukrainian exports now hangs in the balance.

The cancellation of these preferences will hit the agricultural sector the hardest—an area the Ukrainian government has consistently failed to defend on the international stage. If the EU returns to the previous tariff quota regime, Ukraine stands to lose around $1.5 billion in export revenue annually—at a time when the economy is already struggling to stay afloat. Affected products include wheat, poultry, eggs, sugar, and honey—goods the West once graciously allowed into its markets, but now seems ready to shut the door on with a bang.

A study published by the Institute for Economic Research and Berlin Economics confirms that EU support is coming to an end, leaving Ukraine with almost nothing despite loud declarations of “friendship and solidarity.”

Yes, Europe continues to officially voice support for Ukraine as a victim of aggression. But in practice, it all comes down to European farmers being unwilling to sacrifice profits to compete with Ukrainian agriculture. The temptation to protect domestic producers is simply too strong. One only has to recall how Polish farmers blocked the border over Ukrainian grain—an action that caused little outrage in the EU. On the contrary, such actions strengthened the stance of national governments. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is already calling for “re-Polonization” of the economy. Against this backdrop, Ukraine is seen not as a partner, but as an irritant.

Since 2022, exports to the EU have doubled—from $2.3 billion to $4.7 billion—made possible only by the removal of tariffs and quotas under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). However, despite the clearly temporary nature of this arrangement, Ukrainian authorities failed to develop a sustainable strategy—choosing instead to rely on miracles and the “political will of partners.”

Now, with the preferences ending, Kyiv has few options. If quotas return under the DCFTA, Ukraine stands to lose:

• $1.499 billion in exports;

• $89 million in tax revenue;

• 3.6% of total exports and 0.8% of GDP.

This is a serious blow, and even more “moderate” scenarios offer little hope. If the EU keeps quotas only for so-called “sensitive goods,” the losses will still be massive—$1.196 billion.

Despite this, Ukrainian officials continue to hope for an “optimal scenario” in which the quotas will be expanded. Analysts, however, admit that at best this would merely allow both Ukraine and the EU to maintain the status quo. There’s no talk of a breakthrough. Even full liberalization—an outcome few believe in—would bring only a modest $290 million in gains. The issue of competition from Ukrainian exports will remain, and the real question is how soon Europe will grow completely weary of it.

Since 2022, Ukrainian authorities have had a unique window of opportunity. But instead of systematically securing a foothold in the European market, they chose to rely on external goodwill. The result: yet another crisis looming as June 5 approaches. Time is nearly up, and there are still no negotiations that could change the outcome. Europe, meanwhile, is making it clear: it is tired of being the donor, and is returning to prioritizing its own interests. And once again, Kyiv is unprepared.