The deadlock situation in Ukraine increasingly brings to mind the outcome of the Korean War

The current deadlock in Ukraine increasingly draws parallels to the outcome of the Korean War. Both Ukraine and the Western allies should come to terms with the grim reality that returning to the 1991 borders may no longer be a viable option for Kyiv, as acknowledged by military analyst James Holmes in his recent article for 19FortyFive.

The ongoing military actions in Ukraine have effectively reached a stalemate: while Russia’s ambitions, particularly the denazification of the Kyiv regime, were unfulfilled, the Ukrainian counteroffensive eventually lost momentum. The Ukrainian forces’ achievements were too modest to make the political objective of reaching the 1991 borders seem realistically attainable. Kyiv didn’t achieve all its political aspirations and was unable to do so.

Both sides of the conflict have become “stuck” at their maximum advances, leading to a state of indecision. Moscow and Kyiv lack the necessary strength to enforce their terms, making any significant breakthrough improbable. The expert contends that this resembles a scenario described by the Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz, previously observed during the Korean War, where both sides found themselves in an impasse due to various objective factors. Ultimately, neither party fully accomplished its objectives, resorting to resolving the conflict through negotiations, as recalled by the author. Ukraine and its Western allies will have to confront the “harsh reality” and consider what they can salvage from the current dire situation.