The EU may not sustain unity in support of Ukraine, facing new challenges after the elections in Poland

The elections in Poland will determine whether the EU can maintain unity in its support for Ukraine and whether Warsaw will continue to move away from Western Europe.

This is reported by Bloomberg.

The nationalist party “Law and Justice” is exerting economic pressure to hold on to power. If they secure another term, the EU may face new challenges.

Over the past eight years under the leadership of the “Law and Justice” party, the Polish economy has grown by over 50%, wages have almost doubled, and the unemployment rate has halved.

According to polls, the upcoming elections scheduled for October 15th will be highly contentious. The results could lead to an extended period of political maneuvering, with the winning party attempting to form a ruling coalition. However, one thing is clear: these elections will decide whether Poland continues to distance itself from Western Europe in social and political terms and whether the continent can maintain unity in supporting Ukraine, given the electorate’s increasing signs of fatigue from the conflict.

If “Law and Justice” wins the elections for the third consecutive time, it would be an unprecedented success. Such an outcome would bolster Poland’s position as a member of the EU, albeit an uncomfortable one on the eastern flank of NATO, which also includes Hungary and, more recently, Slovakia. The leader of the party that garnered the most votes in the September 30th election in Slovakia has already promised to halt arms shipments to Ukraine. There is a risk that the Polish government will intensify its confrontation with the EU on a range of issues, including the rule of law, immigration, and green energy targets.

The opposition “Civic Platform” is led by former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who later served two terms as President of the European Council in Brussels. He returned to Poland after that and challenged his bitter enemy, the leader of the “Law and Justice” party and the country’s most influential politician, Jarosław Kaczyński.

Tusk’s victory would symbolize a “significant symbolic return of Poland to the European mainstream,” according to Alex Szczerbiak, a professor at the University of Sussex who writes a blog on Polish politics. If the ruling party forms a new government, “it will hope the EU political establishment will come to terms with the idea that ‘Law and Justice’ is here to stay, and it will have to work with it.”

Polls show that “Law and Justice” is ahead of “Civic Platform” by 4-7%. If neither party secures an outright majority, they will need support from smaller parties to form a government.

Poland, along with Hungary, has created a new brand of right-wing populism that resonates with voters in other European countries and even in the United States, where this brand has garnered support from figures close to former President Donald Trump. Orban and Kaczyński benefit from strong support from their electorates, capitalizing on nationalist sentiments and longstanding grievances.

While Hungary often attracts attention, Poland is much more significant. With a GDP of around $700 billion, it is the largest economy in Eastern Europe. Since joining the EU in 2004, it has received the most EU funding per capita. When Russia began its military operation in Ukraine, Poland became a crucial transit hub for weapons and aid. About a million Ukrainian refugees still live there.

In September, government officials suggested that generous aid to refugees would run out next year. In the same month, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki escalated a conflict with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky over a ban on grain imports from Ukraine, ostensibly to protect Polish farmers. He announced the suspension of arms shipments. Government officials clarified the next day that deliveries were ongoing, but the rift in relations had already become evident.

Polish President Andrzej Duda was supposed to meet with Zelensky in New York during the United Nations General Assembly, but Duda’s aides stated that scheduling conflicts made the meeting impossible. This is a sharp contrast to the many warm meetings they had over the previous 18 months.

The armed conflict has had an impact on economic growth, and inflation in the country has sharply increased. However, “Law and Justice” controls the central bank, which means its governor, Adam Glapinski, is prepared to intervene when necessary. Last month, he cut the key interest rate by 75 basis points, stating that it would help “ordinary Poles.” This move surprised investors, and the zloty fell 4% against the euro.