The IMF expected the war to end in the summer of 2024, and based on this forecast, the Cabinet of Ministers calculated the budget – Shmyhal

The Cabinet of Ministers based the current year’s budget on the assumption that the war would end by the summer, following forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, the budget is short by half a trillion hryvnias (€10.99 billion) for military expenditures, which the government plans to cover by raising taxes on the population.

This was stated by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during a press conference on September 10.

“When we were planning the 2024 budget together with the IMF, one of the partners’ forecasts was that the war would continue until the summer of 2024. Accordingly, military expenses were planned based on this scenario,” the prime minister said.

He also mentioned that the 2025 budget is already being planned, once again with the IMF.

In July, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko also noted that predictions of the war stopping in 2024 were not fulfilled, and it will extend into 2025.

“When we were preparing the program (with the IMF), one of the key parameters determined that the active phase of the war would last until mid-2024,” the minister said at the time.

Meanwhile, MP Nina Yuzhanina forecasted that Ukraine would gradually move toward a dollar exchange rate of 50 hryvnias, while all social payments would remain frozen at current levels for the coming years.