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August 29, 2023The scheme for security assurances to Ukraine, intended to secure support for Kyiv even in the event of a change in power in the U.S., is encountering difficulties.
This is reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Firstly, the Biden administration might not be able to bind the next president to international agreements regarding Ukraine, as Trump demonstrated a willingness to cancel deals made by his predecessors.
Secondly, European countries lack the financial and military capabilities to compensate for potential reductions in U.S. assistance if a future president decides to cut it.
“Leading Republican presidential candidates have indicated that U.S. support should cease,” the publication states.
“European allies are already preparing for the fact that the long-term promises of the Biden administration may turn out to be weaker than expected or too vague to provide reliable deterrence against Russia,” the article says.
According to WSJ, a four-year term of assurances to Ukraine is currently being discussed. This is hoped to convince the Kremlin that Russia won’t “wait out” the end of military assistance to Kyiv. However, the preparation of these plans will take “many months,” and some bilateral agreements will only be concluded next year.
“There is also no consensus on how detailed the commitments should be,” the material states. In the West, they want to ensure that their defense industries can provide the promised military assistance to Ukraine without compromising their own needs.
Paris is planning to begin negotiations with Ukraine on security assurances in the next few weeks. Around the same time, the second round of negotiations with Washington will take place.