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November 13, 2023The foreign-policy establishment, after initially dismissing calls for restraint in Ukraine is now shifting towards advocating for it. In recent months, American and European diplomats have been encouraging the Ukrainian government to pursue peace talks, acknowledging the challenging military and political dynamics. This change reflects a reversal from earlier criticism of those advocating for restraint.
This is reported in the article of the journalist Branko Marcetic.
For the past two years, proponents of de-escalation were often met with accusations of immorality or impracticality. Despite consistent arguments for peace talks benefiting Ukrainians and the country, these voices faced backlash with claims of appeasement and even accusations of supporting the enemy. The proponents of restraint highlighted the devastating costs of a prolonged war, including significant casualties, economic decline and risks to Ukraine’s fragile democracy.
They warned that pursuing an outright victory against Russia was unlikely, given the military power imbalance and emphasized the potential negative outcomes for Ukraine, even in the event of military escalation. The pro-peace voices argued that the U.S. should leverage diplomatic efforts to reach a negotiated settlement rather than continue down the path of military confrontation.
However, recent events have proven challenging for Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Despite efforts and sacrifices, the territorial gains have been limited with significant human and economic costs. The reluctance of the Biden administration to provide further military aid and the reported intention to conclude the conflict on less favorable terms underscore the complexities faced by Ukraine.
The article suggests that earlier engagement in peace talks, even in the initial weeks of the conflict, might have resulted in more favorable terms for Ukraine. There were indications that negotiations were making progress early on but longer conflict scenarios were favored by some Western powers. The consequences include not only a less advantageous peace deal but also substantial human and economic losses for Ukraine.
In conclusion, the shift toward advocating restraint in Ukraine reflects a reconsideration within the foreign-policy establishment but the challenges faced by Ukraine in the ongoing conflict highlight the potential missed opportunities for earlier diplomatic resolutions.