‘This is still an optimistic forecast’: in Ukraine, after the end of the war, the population may not exceed 30 million – Institute of Demography

After the war in Ukraine, there might be 30 million people remaining in the country.

This was stated by Ella Libanova, the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies named after M.V. Ptukha at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

“My dream is for us to have 30 million within the borders of 1991,” the academic noted in response to the question of what the population of Ukraine will be after the war.

Libanova emphasized that the majority of Ukrainian women who are currently residing in Europe due to the war have higher education and are capable of taking care of themselves. Therefore, after they settle in the West and when the state of war is lifted, men might go to join them rather than the other way around.

“70% of our women abroad (according to German and Polish data) have higher education. You understand that those who went abroad with children are not the weakest. They say that those who have always relied on their husband or father stayed behind – that’s not true. Those who relied on someone else didn’t go, they were afraid because there’s no ‘someone else’ there. So, we might lose a lot. I’m very afraid that after the victory and the lifting of the state of war, family reunification will happen – but not in Ukraine. The risk exists. And the longer the war lasts, and the more infrastructure – both industrial, residential, and other types – gets destroyed, the higher the probability that it will happen,” explained Academician Libanova.

According to her, unlike Russia, losing 1 million citizens is a catastrophe for Ukraine.

“Our resources are too different. The loss of a million people for Ukraine is a catastrophe, morally, mentally, and quantitatively. For Russia – it’s not,” Ella Libanova stated.

However, as the researcher believes, Ukrainian society won’t be able to adapt quickly to life during prolonged war.

“We’ll be able to rebuild, the question is when it will happen,” said Ella Libanova.

According to various data, currently, from 6 to 8 million Ukrainians have become refugees in different countries around the world since February 24, 2022. Over 5 million of them have applied for temporary resident status in neighboring EU countries.

Ella Libanova also believes that even after 10 years, Ukraine will remain a poor country.

“Ukraine is a poor country, and it will stay poor in 5, 10 years. We need to look at the things that have been destroyed. I think no matter how hard we try to rebuild, we will remain a poor country. In a poor country, the population gathers around the capital and metropolises. We have 5 of them, and we consider Lviv a metropolis too, even though it doesn’t have a million [people],” the researcher noted.