Ukraine and its allies lack a common vision of what victory means and how to achieve it – CNBC

“Ukraine can keep on fighting Russia — but the ‘victory’ it wants might be out of reach”.

With such title an article published on the CNBS website discussing the situation in Ukraine.

Experts interviewed by the publication believe that Ukraine and its allies lack a common vision of what victory means and what steps and resources are needed to achieve it. They consider returning to the borders of 1991 as unrealistic in the near to medium term, considering Russia’s military potential and superiority in mobilization resources.

Kyiv-based military expert Alexander Musiyenko believes that the provision of American aid to Ukraine has boosted morale in society, thus the leadership is not currently inclined to discuss a potential end to the war that does not involve complete victory.

However, overall, “the share of the Ukrainian population willing to consider territorial concessions in exchange for cessation of hostilities/peace is consistently growing,” notes Andrew Tursa, an advisor on Central and Eastern Europe at the consulting firm Teneo. In connection with this, he suggests that discussions about alternative ways to end the war acceptable to Ukraine may become more active later in 2024.

According to Musiyenko, a ceasefire could be achieved if in the coming months the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to weaken and exhaust the Russian army, and if Ukraine receives reliable security and defense guarantees.

“In such a scenario, Ukrainians will not have enough strength to liberate the old territory according to internationally recognized borders, and Russians will not have enough strength to occupy a larger territory,” Musiyenko said.

In this case, Ukraine would maintain its independence and sovereignty and “simply wait, like East and West Germany” until their reunification in 1990.

“This is the scenario we can expect in reality,” Musiyenko believes.

Yesterday, the British magazine The Economist forecasted that Ukraine would need until 2026 or 2027 to begin a counteroffensive.