Ukraine has officially recorded an economic contraction in the first quarter of 2026

Ukraine’s State Statistics Service has officially recorded a contraction of the Ukrainian economy in the first quarter of 2026. GDP fell by 0.5% year-on-year compared with the first quarter of 2025, and by 0.7% compared with the previous quarter, that is, the fourth quarter of last year.

The publication appeared on the agency’s Facebook page.

If GDP declines for two quarters in a row, it will be possible to speak of a recession — a sustained economic downturn.

This likely explains the National Bank’s downgrade of its 2026 economic forecast last week from 1.8% to 1.3%.

National Bank of Ukraine Governor Andriy Pyshnyy said the revised expectations were due not only to slowing economic activity in the country at the start of the year, attacks on energy facilities, a cold winter, and delays in international financing, but also to the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East.

As a reminder, according to the results of 2025, the State Statistics Service recorded GDP growth in Ukraine at 1.8%, which was a significant slowdown compared with previous years: 2.9% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2023, after a decline of almost 29% in 2022.