Ukraine is rapidly losing its population: the Institute of Demography has estimated how the population of Ukraine has decreased over the two years of war

Over the past two years, the population of Ukraine within the borders of 1991 has decreased from 42 to 35 million people.

This information stated by the deputy director of the Ukrainian State Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Issues, Alexander Gladun.

According to him, this is roughly comparable to the UN’s data on 6.5 million Ukrainian refugees currently residing abroad.

Even before the war, it was a commonly accepted view among experts that the actual number of people living in Ukraine was less than 42 million, as millions had already left the country for work abroad. Figures of 35-38 million of the population living on the territory controlled by Ukraine before February 24, 2022, were mentioned.

Gladun expressed the opinion in an interview with DW that Europe will be reluctant to repatriate refugees after the war.

“In modern Europe, the demographic situation is not very good either, so they are interested in Ukrainians. And most likely, in most countries, there will be policies aimed at keeping them, considering the current active efforts for their integration,” said the demographer.

Moreover, he predicts reciprocal migration flows after the war – meaning that some men will leave to reunite with their families abroad. However, not only migration but also mortality is increasing in Ukraine. The reason lies not only in deaths resulting from combat actions but also in a decline in the level of medical services and an increase in cardiovascular diseases.

According to the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, over the past two military years, there have been more than a million registered deaths in the territories controlled by Ukraine: 541.7 thousand in 2022 and 496.2 thousand last year. The decrease in the indicator in 2023 is associated with a reduction in the number of regions affected by the war, Gladun believes.

It is worth noting that in the pre-war year 2021, mortality was higher – 714,263 people, according to State Statistics. However, these data included regions that Russia annexed after the invasion.

Gladun is not aware of whether the statistics on deceased soldiers are included in the figures of the Ministry of Justice since it is classified. However, he assumes that it should be included because death certificates are also issued to their families.

At the same time, the birth rate has dropped significantly – last year it was 31.5% lower than in pre-war 2021 and 9% lower than in the year before last. This trend may lead to a situation where in 2035-2037, the share of the population under the age of 18 will be 12-15% compared to 25% recorded in 1993.

“This means that with their transition to reproductive age in the next generation, even fewer children will be born. Accordingly, in the next one – even fewer,” notes the demographer. According to a report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, Ukraine could become the country with the lowest birth rate in the world.