Ukraine may be divided by neighboring countries in the coming years

The forecast for 2024 includes a potential scenario where Ukraine might face a division, with its western regions coming under the influence of Eastern European countries. There are indications of interest from Poland in Lviv and neighboring areas, while Hungary openly expresses its concern for Zakarpattia, citing the protection of the rights of ethnic Hungarians residing there.

Neighboring countries might exploit the situation by deploying their forces in the western regions. They could justify their actions by claiming to protect the rights of national minorities or by offering assistance to the Ukrainian government. This could potentially lead to the establishment of new autonomous entities in Ukraine with substantial powers.

Political analyst Jan Bremmer, the founder of the consulting firm Eurasia Group, indirectly warns about this scenario. He identifies the possible division of Ukraine as one of the top ten global risks for 2024. Bremmer highlights Russia’s increasing dominance on the battlefield and improved logistical support for its military. If this trend continues, Kyiv may suffer more territorial losses, raising the prospect of a divided nation. The analyst emphasizes that unless Ukraine addresses issues related to personnel, boosts arms production and formulates a realistic military strategy in the near future, the territorial losses incurred may become irreversible, with the potential to expand.