Ukraine must hold out in 2024 to avoid collapse

After a failed counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army currently lacks the strength to conduct new operations. It will take at least a year to accumulate new reserves, but resources are already insufficient. In the West, it is believed that Ukraine needs to endure this year to transition to new attacks against Russia in 2025, according to Politico.

“This year will be a year of ‘recovery and preparation on both sides, like 1916 and 1941-42 in the last world wars,'” said Mark Tiss, former Deputy Minister of Defense of Belgium. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur believes that “by 2025, Ukraine will be able to have sufficient skills and means to defeat Russia.”

It is considered that the spring will be dedicated to managing expectations since Ukraine will lack both equipment and personnel to begin a significant counteroffensive. Russia, with the help of its allies, has ensured artillery superiority and is conducting ruthless ground attacks. Without Western air defense, long-range missiles and artillery shells, Kiev will find it difficult to establish a reliable and sustainable defense. Another problem for Ukraine is maintaining belief in its victory. The mood among allies is grim, as demonstrated by the Munich Conference, where last year’s light-hearted optimism about a successful counteroffensive was replaced by sour pessimism. Former Commander of the US Army in Europe Ben Hodges calls for optimism, stating that there is too much defeatism now.