Ukraine must stop ‘magical thinking’: there are no signs that Russia is losing the war of attrition – WSJ

It’s time to stop ‘magical thinking’ about Russia’s defeat.

This is stated by Eugene Rumer, a former US intelligence officer, in an article for the Wall Street Journal.

He notes that the counteroffensive hasn’t led to a breakthrough that would give Kyiv a strong position in negotiations, and bipartisan support for Ukraine in the US has dwindled.

“There are no signs on the front line that Russia is losing a war of attrition. The Russian economy has suffered, but it’s not destroyed. Putin’s power paradoxically strengthened after the failed June uprising of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Public support for the war remains firm, and Putin’s support from the elite has not wavered,” writes Rumer.

Additionally, the West’s promises to increase military supplies have not materialized, and sanctions “have impeded Putin’s military efforts much less than expected.”

“Russian defense plants are increasing production volumes, and outdated Soviet factories outperform Western ones when it comes to essential goods like artillery shells,” the article states.

“Russian technocrats responsible for managing the Russian economy have proven their resilience, adaptability, and inventiveness. Increased oil prices, partly due to close collaboration with Saudi Arabia, are replenishing the state treasury. In contrast, Ukraine heavily relies on Western aid.”

Furthermore, Russia still receives support from various parts of the “global South,” which accuses the West of double standards.

The author suggests that Western countries should inform their public about “the enduring nature of the threat posed by a bold, revisionist Russia” and continue to assist Ukraine even after the cessation of hostilities.