Ukraine should change its tactics and prepare for a long-term war – The Economist

Ukraine should change its tactics and prepare for a protracted conflict.

This information reported according to The Economist.

As the publication notes, Ukraine and its allies are beginning to understand that they are facing an exhausting war of attrition for which none of them is adequately prepared.

The conflict in Ukraine has repeatedly defied expectations. The June counteroffensive, with hopes that Ukrainian soldiers equipped with modern Western weapons and trained in Germany would reclaim enough territory to secure a strong negotiating position for their leaders, did not go as planned. Despite their efforts near Rubizhne, Ukraine only recaptured less than 0.25% of the territory occupied by Russia. The front line, stretching a thousand kilometers, has hardly shifted. While the Ukrainian army still has the potential for a breakthrough in the coming weeks, recent events suggest that relying on this would be reckless.

Both Ukraine and its Western supporters are coming to realize that they are in for a grueling war of attrition. President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington this week for negotiations.

“I must be prepared for a long war,” he told The Economist.

At the same time, Ukraine is not yet prepared, nor are its Western partners. They are all still focused on a counteroffensive. It is time for them to rethink both Ukraine’s military strategy and its economy. Instead of aiming for “victory” followed by reconstruction, Ukraine must strive for resilience in a protracted conflict and prosperity despite it.

“The first of the forthcoming recalibrations is military. Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted, and many units have lost their best fighters. Despite mobilization, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lack the manpower for sustained large-scale counteroffensives. Ukraine needs to rationalize resources and rewrite the rules of the game. New tactics and technologies can shift the battle into Russian territory. Ukrainian companies are already ramping up drone production. But do not expect a knockout blow. Russia has also increased drone production,” the publication states.

In addition to Ukraine’s offensive potential, it needs to bolster its resilience. Apart from heavy weaponry, it requires technical support to endure a multi-year struggle, primarily involving ongoing maintenance, reliable artillery supplies, and training. Prolonged combat operations necessitate, above all, improved air defense.

The country’s economy has shrunk by a third, and nearly half of its budget is funded by the West. With approximately a million Ukrainians gone to the front and millions more having fled the country, there is a severe shortage of labor.

All of this requires political will, both from Ukraine itself and from the West.