Ukraine still waiting to join but EU is not ready for enlargement

The European Union (EU) cannot accept Ukraine as a full-fledged member.

This information reported according to an article in The Guardian.

Countries receiving EU funding would have to transition into becoming donors, which they are not economically prepared for. Additionally, Ukraine is a major player in the grain market, necessitating reforms in the EU’s agricultural policies.

It wasn’t until the start of the Russian invasion that European leaders began to calculate the necessary steps, says an expert.

“You are part of our family, your future is in our union, and our union is incomplete without you,” said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, to Ukraine and nine other countries patiently waiting for their turn to join last year.

But today, as the prospects of Ukraine’s accession to the EU become more realistic, EU leadership is questioning whether the EU is ready for expansion. How will this affect the EU budget, which is already under significant strain? Will Poland, Greece, and Hungary be happy to transition from EU fund recipients to donors? Are Germany and France willing to increase their contributions?

Any of the 27 member states can veto the entry of a new country. Thus, domestic politics will become a significant factor influencing decisions on who becomes an EU member and who does not. If a member state believes that these issues are unpopular with its electorate, it could hinder the accession process.

“Member states realized very late that they would have to carry out internal reforms,” says Steven Blockmans, Director of Research at the Centre for European Policy Studies. This think tank has been studying this issue for many years, but it’s only now, during the war in Ukraine, that ministries and agencies across Europe have started making preliminary calculations, Blockmans says.

The European Commission has not yet developed possible scenarios for budgetary and organizational reforms in an expanded Europe. There is nothing “resembling a real, concrete, structured reform of the enlargement process,” noted Blockmans in a recent report from the Centre for European Policy Studies.

Last summer, Ukraine and Moldova were placed in the queue as official candidates for accession. In addition to them, Albania, Serbia, Kosovo, Turkey, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina stand in this line. And Georgia is in the process of applying. Kosovo has signed a stabilization agreement with other Balkan countries, which will help the region progress further along this path.

Now, Ukraine and Moldova have become the leading contenders, but a senior European diplomat has called for caution and said that speeding up the process will not be possible unless the EU actively insists on it.

“Nothing will happen until there is maximum political pressure. Why should member states agree to enlargement when the situation is so difficult?” said a senior source from the European Commission leadership.

This week, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on politicians to work on EU reforms, saying that by 2030, they must be ready for expansion.

“There is still a lot of work ahead. It will be difficult, and sometimes painful. For future member states and for the EU,” he said.

“From a political point of view, it will be difficult,” says Blockmans. However, he notes that many potential beneficiaries are in the Balkans and want to see “Russia pushed further away.” This factor may outweigh negative arguments about the costs of expansion.

There is also the question of the size of the European Parliament. Before the armed conflict, Ukraine’s population was 44 million people. This is three million less than in Spain and three million more than in Poland. Therefore, Ukraine could expect 50-60 seats in the European Parliament. Maybe it will be given some of the 73 seats left after Brexit? Or will the expansion of the European Parliament make it too cumbersome and unwieldy? We should expect arguments in favor of reducing the representation quotas for member states, which is a very unpopular topic for countries that would be affected by such reductions.

Given that agrarians are improving their political savvy and skills, one of the main tasks for Brussels officials will be to outline possible reforms in the Common Agricultural Policy if Ukraine is admitted.

Ukraine is one of the largest players in the global grain market. It has more arable land than Italy. Before the conflict, it accounted for 10% of the wheat market, 15% of the corn market, and 13% of the barley market. It was also the dominant player in the sunflower oil market, with 50% ownership of that sector, according to the European Commission.

Ukraine will become a major recipient of Common Agricultural Policy payments if current rules remain in place. There are five years left until the next funding period, and the question of expansion must be part of the discussion, said Germany’s Minister of Food and Agriculture, Silvia Bender.

The issue of access to the internal market and the imbalances it may create for farmers also needs to be discussed. However, Blockmans notes that this system is already experiencing disruptions in Poland and other neighboring countries, where there is a temporary ban on the sale of certain types of Ukrainian products.

Blockmans says that the prospect of Ukraine’s accession will trigger debates about common agricultural payments and “push debates that have been going on for years.”

Ukraine and other countries are waiting their turn for accession – but is the EU ready for expansion?