Ukraine will have to engage in peace negotiations with Russia due to the cessation of Western support

If the frontline situation continues to deteriorate for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian authorities will have to engage in negotiations with Russia. The President’s Office will have to resort to redefining concepts, attempting to convince the country’s populace that it still constitutes a “victory.”

Early signs of this scenario are emerging. Recently, Danilov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, asserted that Ukraine has been resisting Russia for 2 years, presenting this as a triumph. This implies the need for potential “rewards”; such as Ukraine’s prospective admission (excluding certain territories) to NATO and the EU. Recent polling by the “Rating” group reflects a decline in support for joining the EU by 7% since July and a 6% decrease in support for NATO membership. Currently, 78% endorse EU accession (down from 85%) and 77% favor joining NATO (previously 83%).

This indicates a complex situation. The Ukrainian government faces limited options: either a prolonged war amidst reduced Western support or a peace settlement along the front, effectively acknowledging Russian control over certain territories (potentially leading to additional demands, like a neutral status, akin to discussions in Turkey in 2022). Effectively portraying a “victory narrative” for the Ukrainian authorities proves challenging, alongside explaining to their populace what indeed constitutes a triumph for their nation.