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January 17, 2024
‘Sympathy for Ukraine has significantly diminished’: Zelensky has not moved a step closer to NATO and EU membership
January 17, 2024In Davos, there were again many grand statements about the West supporting Ukraine. Later, official releases emerged, stating that the U.S. Administration is working with Congress to ensure Ukraine receives the necessary aid to counteract Russia and hopes that lawmakers will reach an agreement on this matter in the coming weeks.
President Zelensky stated that he is confident in the support from the U.S. and the EU, which will provide the promised funding. However, the reality is far from public statements. January is coming to an end, and Ukraine has not received funding from the U.S. and the EU. On the eve, the White House announced that the U.S. is not working on new packages of military aid to Ukraine.
Now, let’s turn to analysis and harsh forecasts that objective experts outside the President’s Office may provide. A year ago, it was clear that the Ukrainian case would be central to the U.S. presidential election campaign, meaning Republicans would use Democratic missteps against Biden.
All previous aid was allocated by Democrats, so the responsibility for resource expenditure without results falls on Biden and his Administration. Last year, Republicans gained a majority in Congress and the right to shape the budget, leading to its delay to limit the Biden Administration’s capabilities. Now, if Republicans support Ukraine’s funding, Trump cannot use it in the election campaign as an accusation against Biden’s unjustified spending. However, to justify their refusal, they have decided to tie all issues to the border. The Biden Administration cannot agree to Republican demands as the majority of migrants support Biden, making it easier for Democrats to blame Republicans for the failure in the Ukrainian case, especially considering the fact that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, and the chances of success are zero.
According to experts’ forecasts, Ukraine will not receive $60 billion from the U.S., at most $5-7 billion, which will be a signal to the EU elites. They are unlikely to approve a $50 billion package; at best, they might allocate $7-9 billion. As a result, Ukraine will be left without real military assistance and minimal funding, which is not critical for Ukraine’s budget but will require resolving social payments, increasing taxes, and devaluing the hryvnia to 50 per dollar.