Ukraine’s population nearing critical lows of 26 million

Ukraine’s population continues to decline steadily, a trend that commenced long before the conflict and has been exacerbated by the war. In a decade, it might shrink by half compared to its initial numbers at the dawn of independence.

The country’s demographic crisis is more profound than commonly perceived. Ella Libanova, Director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, highlighted this on TV. According to her projections, Ukraine’s population could reach no more than 35 million in a decade at best but a more pessimistic and realistic estimate puts it at 26 million, similar to the 1991 levels. This decline, which began in 1993 when Ukraine had 52 million people, has been unrelenting.

The demographic issue cannot be stopped; only a slight slowdown is possible, which remains improbable. Demographics are now a critical problem in Ukraine, potentially impacting future economic prospects.

Libanova pointed out key reasons for this decline: low birth rates and rapid aging, heightened mortality rates, particularly among young men due to the conflict, significant emigration from Ukraine, notably since the conflict began. Unfortunately, no population census has been conducted in over two decades, leaving the country without an accurate current count. The return of refugees post-war will likely be limited, leaving Ukraine to manage with a diminished population.