Ukrainian budget: expert warns of money shortage starting in October

Financial analyst Alexei Kushch has stated that in the fourth quarter of this year — starting in October — the Ukrainian state budget will have no money.

He made the announcement on the Novini.LIVE television channel.

When asked by the host about the state of the Ukrainian treasury, Kushch clarified that it is not empty in the literal sense.

“The treasury is not empty. The treasury includes several components: the National Bank’s reserves, the treasury account of the Ministry of Finance in dollars and hryvnias. That is, the treasury is multi-layered and diverse,” the analyst said.

When the host asked what exactly the numerous speakers talking about the budget being exhausted actually mean, Kushch explained: the issue is a shortfall in tax revenues and mandatory payments that need to be funded in the fourth quarter.

“If you extrapolate the trends of declining revenues to the fourth quarter, then in principle you can conclude that there is already no money. There is definitely no money. That is, we assess the tax shortfall in the third quarter, extrapolate it to the fourth quarter and get a deficit in tax revenues for 2026, and compare this with the minimum necessary amounts of government payments. These are protected budget items: defense, social expenditures. And we see that there is not enough money there,” Kushch explained.

Earlier, Verkhovna Rada deputy from the Servant of the People party Olga Vasylevska-Smahliuk stated that in Ukraine only social expenditures, salaries for public sector workers, and military maintenance are being funded.

As Druha Ukraina reported, the outlet covered the budget deficit in greater detail in a separate article.