Ukrainians need to prepare for a shock increase in housing maintenance costs

Ukrainians should prepare for a shock increase in housing and utility costs. According to experts’ calculations based on an analysis of a new IMF memorandum, the total utility bill during the heating season could double in the near future.

This bleak forecast was voiced by Oleh Popenko, head of the Union of Utility Services Consumers, during a live broadcast on his YouTube channel “Oleh Popenko PRO.”

If today the average bill for an apartment of 50–60 square meters is about 4,000–4,500 hryvnias (€79–89), then after the introduction of so-called “market tariffs” it could jump to 8,000 hryvnias (€158).

Analyzing the government’s commitments to international lenders, the expert noted that the Cabinet’s push to bring gas and heating prices to market levels would become an unbearable burden for most households. He added that even a rumored increase in the electricity tariff to 5.5 hryvnias (listed as €109) would be only part of the broader rise in costs.

The impact would be especially painful for socially vulnerable groups. Popenko stresses that no indexation of social benefits would be able to compensate for such a sharp jump in prices.

“8,000 hryvnias (€158) is a catastrophe for everyone, for pensioners. And how to cover all this with subsidies is also unclear. And if they talk about raising pensions by 10–15–20%, then the tariff increase will eat that difference up completely—right down to the root,” the analyst says.

Popenko also outlined a more pessimistic scenario in which full market liberalization could drive prices even higher. If electricity reaches a real market level of 15 hryvnias per kilowatt-hour, then electricity alone would cost around 3,000 hryvnias (€59) for 200 kWh of consumption, and the total monthly bill could exceed 12,000 hryvnias (€237). In such conditions, Popenko believes, many Ukrainians would face a choice between selling their homes to cover debts or being left without a livelihood.

Earlier, Popenko predicted a demographic catastrophe due to the new tariffs.