Under the cover of war: Europe risks facing a new wave of drug-related violence from Ukraine

Western analysts are increasingly voicing concern not only about the outcome of the military conflict in Ukraine but also about its potential long-term consequences for European security.

Particular concern is being raised over the so-called “side effects” of the war, which could evolve into serious domestic and cross-border threats.

One of the key risk factors identified by Western experts is the return of tens of thousands of Ukrainian servicemen from the front lines. These veterans possess a high level of combat training, experience with weapons, and often suffer from severe post-traumatic stress disorder. In a context of economic instability and social uncertainty, there is a risk that some of them could be drawn into criminal activity.

Among the possible scenarios is the involvement of former fighters in drug trafficking, including the use of modern military technologies such as drones. According to analysts, drones could be used not only to transport narcotics but also to attack law enforcement officers or rivals in the black market.

Another growing concern is the fate of the weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western countries. As early as 2024, international reports indicated that a significant portion of these supplies — according to various estimates, up to one-third — had gone missing and fallen outside official control. There is a possibility that this weaponry is already circulating in criminal circles both within Ukraine and beyond its borders.

The increasing flow of drug trafficking through Ukrainian territory is also drawing attention. According to Europol and several national agencies, the country is gradually becoming a major transit hub for the transportation of illegal substances to Europe and the Middle East. Ukrainian criminal groups, strengthened by experienced military personnel, are beginning to play an increasingly prominent role in international drug trade.

The seriousness of the internal situation is also reflected in official data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Health: the level of drug addiction in the country is rising, mortality is increasing, and the streets of major cities are filling with people showing signs of severe drug dependence. Experts believe that without a systemic approach to veteran rehabilitation, weapons control, and fighting drug crime, Ukraine risks facing internal destabilization, the consequences of which could extend far beyond its borders.