World Bank cuts forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2027 to 1.5%

The World Bank has sharply downgraded its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth in 2027 — from 4% to 1.5% — incorporating the continuation of active hostilities throughout the entirety of next year into its baseline scenario.

This was reported by Interfax-Ukraine, citing the bank’s updated economic review.

The forecast revision is linked to a change in expectations regarding the timeline for the end of the war. In its April forecast, the bank had assumed that active hostilities would end by late 2026. Abandoning that scenario is the reason for the 2.5 percentage point reduction in projected growth.

For 2026, the World Bank projects real GDP growth in Ukraine of 1.2%, compared with 1.8% in its previous estimate. In 2028, the economy could grow by 3%, according to the bank’s calculations.

The bank identifies external financing for 2027 as the main source of uncertainty. Ukraine’s significant needs have not yet been fully funded, and negotiations with international partners are ongoing.

The World Bank also warns that delays in implementing agreed reforms could further slow the flow of aid and widen the financing gap.

It was previously reported that Ukraine’s GDP grew by just 0.4% in the second quarter — one and a half times less than had been assumed in earlier forecasts.