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November 8, 2024
Orban stated that Trump ‘will lead the U.S. out of the war in Ukraine,’ although it will be difficult
November 8, 2024Many high-ranking Ukrainian officials have placed their hopes on Donald Trump’s victory. Faced with the choice between continued minimal support from Biden or a wildcard president, they are willing to take the risk.
This is reported by The Economist.
The publication highlights that the Biden administration has caused growing frustration due to its persistent fear of escalation, refusal to allow Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes on Russian territory. This is exacerbated by chronic delays in delivering military aid; even packages that have already been approved.
During his campaign, Trump promised to end the conflict within 24 hours. No one—not even Trump himself, perhaps—knows the exact nature of his peace plan. At present, Ukrainian officials are working with two public scenarios:
- The first involves freezing the conflict along current lines and pressuring Ukraine into neutrality without clear security guarantees or constraints on Putin.
- The second option emphasizes increased military and financial support as a deterrent to Moscow, while maintaining the prospect of NATO membership. Much will depend on which plan Trump favors.
A complete “sale” of Ukraine by Trump is unlikely; he would not want to be seen as the architect and cause of Ukraine’s defeat. However, as a deal-oriented politician, Trump would likely expect something in return from Ukraine, such as access to its natural resources.
The publication also notes that Putin will have his own approach to negotiations. As temperatures across Ukraine hover around freezing, Russia is renewing its campaign to destroy much of the country’s energy infrastructure. These attacks are expected to intensify.
“They will try to do something… They will destroy the energy system, attempt to kill the leadership. The next three months will be terrible,” says former Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.