Zelensky, USA, Russia, or oligarchs: who benefits from the elections in Ukraine, and who is promoting former advisor of the Office of President Arestovich on them

The former advisor to the Office of the President, Alexey Arestovich, has recently been harshly criticizing the ruling team of Vladimir Zelensky. He has accused the government of strategic military blunders, suppression of civil and political freedoms, and the promotion of corruption.

“Our leadership has exhausted its competence, driven the situation into a dead-end, and continues to insist on its misguided policies. It is leading us to a catastrophe”, – Arestovich wrote in one of his recent posts on his Telegram channel.

He believes that it’s the political leadership, not the military, that bears full responsibility for the developments on the front.

Arestovich sees the way forward in holding elections in Ukraine, which, in his view, offer hope for a “reset,” the “destruction of the monopoly of incompetence,” and the rise of new forces capable of making decisions that align with the real situation.

“In the coming months, even those who strongly object to elections will begin to pray for them as the only hope for getting out of this strategic dead-end”, – he predicts.

Experts explain Arestovich’s sudden shift in rhetoric as part of his preparation for future elections. However, there is intrigue surrounding whether he is acting on his own initiative, definitively severing ties and positioning himself in the opposition, or whether this is done in coordination with the Office of the President of Ukraine as a “sparring partner” for Zelensky.

If he is indeed engaging in a game against Zelensky, rather than with his approval, the question arises: who supports and promotes him as a political project, an alternative to the president?

Arestovich’s recent statements have drawn attention, primarily because, since the start of the war, no one had dared to criticize not only the president personally but also the country’s course, and predict an impending catastrophe if there is no change in leadership.

Supporters of Poroshenko, for example, have often criticized Zelensky, but even after February 24, 2022, they did not go as far as making predictions about an impending disaster, the failure of the offensive, and other statements that could lead to accusations of “sowing defeatist sentiments.”

The government’s reaction was not long in coming. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (SNBO), Alexey Danilov, published an extensive Facebook post alleging that the Kremlin intends to launch a new political project in Ukraine “aimed at the remnants of the pro-Russian population.” Arestovich was not named, but many saw this as a response to the statements of the former presidential advisor. Subsequently, Arestovich confirmed this himself by publishing a response to the SNBO secretary.

However, this exchange did not divert attention from the main question in this situation: why has Arestovich started criticizing the President’s Office so harshly? The answer appears to be his preparation for future election campaigns.

But there are different opinions on who is leading him into the elections and why he is criticizing the authorities so boldly.

Several versions are being discussed:

1. The criticism by Arestovich has been prearranged with the President’s Office, which is preparing several “columns” for the upcoming elections, including Arestovich himself.
2. Arestovich has gained support from Americans who want to see more political diversity in Ukraine and are not interested in Zelensky’s monopolization of power.
3. Oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, although he has stepped into the shadows, may be trying to maintain some influence on political processes for the sake of his business. This version is supported by Arestovich’s recent interviews with journalists linked to the Akhmetov group.
4. The fourth version, as presented by Danilov, suggests that Arestovich may have been “recruited” by the Russians. However, there is no evidence for this, except for the fact that his criticisms against the Ukrainian government are actively promoted by Russian media and even Russian representatives at the UN, including Nebenzya. However, this circumstance is not substantial evidence.
5. The fifth version proposes that Arestovich is acting on his own, believing that the country will soon face a full-scale crisis (which he essentially predicts), in which society will blame Zelensky. This could create a demand for individuals who can take over after him, and Arestovich is attempting to secure this niche in advance.

The key question is whether elections will take place at all before the end of the war. In recent weeks, there have been rumors in Ukrainian political circles that the matter of elections has already been settled, and they are scheduled for the spring of next year, despite the ongoing war. At the very least, presidential elections are due in March according to the constitution, and possibly parliamentary elections as well.

However, it’s evident that these elections can only occur with Zelensky’s approval. Changing the Electoral Code to initiate the process is impossible without the votes of the “Servant of the People” faction.

Zelensky and other government representatives have expressed uncertainty about elections, citing existing problems with their conduct.

Arestovich’s example demonstrates that if the pre-election process is launched, it could be extremely risky for the president and his team. Just like Arestovich is doing now, all other political forces will build their campaigns on strong criticism of Zelensky, emphasizing the need for a change of power, especially if there are no significant successes on the front, but regular corruption scandals continue.