Russia is banking on military successes – the death of Ukrainians due to a shortage of ammunition and air defense means worsens every day – Foreign Policy

The death toll among Ukrainians due to a shortage of ammunition and air defense assets is worsening by the day.

This was reported by Foreign Policy.

If the West does not take Ukraine’s problems seriously, then Ukraine faces collapse. And this contradicts the strategic and moral interests of the United States and Europe, the author reminds.

While Ukrainian forces are preparing for a new offensive by the Russian army, Kyiv urgently needs additional military assistance and ammunition.

Congress has been delaying making a decision on providing additional assistance to Ukraine for seven months now, and such a delay is resulting in new horrific realities on the battlefield. Although Ukrainian troops are strengthening the front line in anticipation of another offensive by the Russian army expected in spring or early summer, the inability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to promptly replenish ammunition supplies may lead to Russia’s most significant successes since the early days of the war.

Politicians in Washington have largely resigned themselves to the fact that the bill, which includes new aid to Ukraine, will not be passed until at least April, when the issue of another budget deadline is resolved. Such timelines have been set by the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, who has repeatedly come up with new excuses, hesitating to put the aid package that has already passed through the Senate to a vote. This delay has greatly contributed to Russia gaining an advantage on the battlefield. If Ukraine wants to prevent Russia from achieving significant gains in the upcoming offensive, it urgently needs new military assistance.

Since the United States stopped supporting Ukraine in December last year, and European partners of Kyiv also failed to provide sufficient military assistance, Russia is now firing more than five artillery shells for every shot fired by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and this advantage continues to grow. During a recent attack, Ukrainian air defense intercepted only two-thirds of Russian missiles and drones, indicating a decrease in their effectiveness. The deaths of Ukrainians due to a shortage of ammunition and air defense assets are worsening every day.

Although some politicians consider the conflict to be “frozen,” Russia is determined to act, resuming its offensive against Ukraine. And it can do so. At the beginning of the war in February 2022, Moscow’s actions were hampered by poor preparation and Ukraine’s determination, but the Russian army has learned valuable lessons, and it is no longer comparable to what it was two years ago. Russia repelled Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023 and has worked out conditions for a likely breakthrough this year.

While Ukrainian forces are strengthening their positions and preparing for the offensive, they have been saving ammunition for several months now and have not received military assistance. They have not prepared as well as Russia did before Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year. Recent combat actions, especially in Avdiivka, have depleted the reserves of Russian armored vehicles, limiting Moscow’s ability to advance rapidly and occupy territories if the Russian army breaks through Ukrainian defenses. Nevertheless, without additional support, especially in terms of ammunition, the conditions on the battlefield are likely to favor Russia.

Although Volodymyr Zelensky does not openly talk about it, fearing to jeopardize assistance from the United States, many Ukrainians fear that Washington has turned away from them. Officials in Kyiv say that without a significant increase in ammunition supplies, Russia will achieve significant success by summer. Their main hope is to hold out on the front line for as long as possible until American lawmakers decide on the timing of resuming assistance. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not going to wait for Washington to make up its mind on the timelines.