The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine set a new record. Bankers believe it will soon exceed 42 hryvnias

With two weeks remaining until the end of 2024, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is accelerating the depreciation of the hryvnia. Over the past two days, it has lost 16 kopecks, and today the NBU set a new official exchange rate maximum for the hryvnia/dollar pair at 41.83 UAH/USD. Last week ended with a rate of 41.66 UAH/USD.

This is the result of depreciation sentiments, currency liberalization, and the NBU’s actions on the interbank market, which the regulator fully controls under its managed flexible exchange rate policy.

Yesterday, the trading range on the main Bloomberg platform was 41.76–41.79 UAH/USD, while today trading opened at 41.78 UAH/USD and by noon had risen to 41.86 UAH/USD. The market closed at 41.88 UAH/USD. Speculators attempted to push the market further, offering rates at 41.92 UAH/USD, though no transactions were recorded at that level.

For the past two days, foreign currency demand on the interbank market has exceeded the standard $200 million: yesterday, Bloomberg trading volumes reached $254.4 million, and today $221.1 million. The NBU covered most of this demand by selling dollars from its foreign currency reserves.

“There’s no longer any doubt that the National Bank will end the year at 42.10 UAH/USD—this rate was embedded in the 2024 state budget, so it will be hard to challenge the regulator’s position. Some even predict the interbank market could reach 42.20–42.30 UAH/USD at the current depreciation pace. The government needs to close many social payments and expenditures at the end of the year, so it will aim to get as much hryvnia as possible for the dollars and euros received from international partners. The NBU, of course, will assist in this,” said the head of the treasury department of a major bank.

On the black market, morning dollar trading began at 41.77–41.93 UAH/USD and ended within 41.93–41.94 UAH/USD.

In bank cash desks, rates were noticeably higher. By evening, the maximum selling price of the dollar reached 42.30 UAH/USD, set by Metabank. At least six banks—Sense Bank, A-Bank, Poltava-Bank, Industrialbank, Credit Europe Bank, and Oksi Bank—set their rates at 42.20 UAH/USD.

The average buying-selling rate of the dollar was in the range of 41.53–42.08 UAH/USD. Two state-owned banks, PrivatBank and Oschadbank, offered ranges of 41.45–42.05 UAH/USD and 41.50–42.05 UAH/USD, respectively.

Maximum card-based exchange rates for selling dollars today reached 42.70 UAH/USD and 42.30 UAH/USD, set by Accordbank and Raiffeisen Bank, respectively. The average card purchase-sale rates were within 41.40–41.93 UAH/USD.