“They won’t come back – the diaspora versus the homeland”: the economy of Ukrainians abroad has already equaled the domestic one

The total gross product of the Ukrainian diaspora in the European Union now amounts to approximately $175 billion — nearly as much as Ukraine’s entire GDP in 2024, which stood at $188 billion.

This was noted by economist and financial analyst Oleksiy Kushch in a piece aptly titled “From Refugees to Investors: Time to Think About How to Bring Trillions of Dispersed Ukrainian Wealth Back Home.”

Given Ukraine’s current population of 28–30 million people, the number is striking. Essentially, millions of Ukrainians who went abroad are now producing nearly as much economic value as the entire population that stayed in the country. According to Kushch, the root cause lies in the inequality of opportunity: “In Ukraine, people work and receive social benefits based on the standards of a poorer economy.”

The analyst argues that the Ukrainian community in exile is emerging as an independent economic entity, comparable to the domestic market.

“This revealing fact shows that in the near future, the Ukrainian diaspora in the EU will have purchasing power equivalent to Ukraine’s internal consumer market,” Kushch writes.

Amid this reality, the conversation has shifted — from “when will Ukrainians return?” to “how can we build a business around those who left and are likely not coming back.” Ukrainian producers are already adapting to target this new, overseas audience. Kushch predicts that the market will respond accordingly.

“First and foremost, logistics and transportation will develop — especially postal and delivery systems that serve horizontal ties between Ukrainians at home and those abroad.”

Next, he says, will come goods and services tailored specifically for the diaspora — from shipments of familiar Ukrainian food to cultural projects, books, and online education for children.

“Ukraine could see the emergence of a whole new layer of medical tourism—not targeting foreigners, but Ukrainians living abroad. In other words, work in the EU, but come home to get your teeth fixed,” Kushch suggests.

The irony, he notes, is that those who remained in Ukraine may now need to adapt to those who left. The economy of dispersed Ukrainians is no longer a temporary phenomenon — it’s becoming the new normal. And calls for the return of millions now increasingly sound like rhetoric unbacked by reality.