Zelensky’s political defeat: why the decision on NABU threatens the collapse of his power vertical

Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to restore the powers of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) could define the future political scenario in Ukraine.

For the president, it looks like a retreat on a critical issue, which is fraught with serious consequences.

Within Zelensky’s inner circle, there are two approaches to the situation.

The first is the so‑called “reassurance camp.” Its supporters believe that the incident with restricting NABU’s and SAPO’s powers was merely a temporary misstep. Restoring these powers, in their view, will calm Europe, regain the trust of Western media, and stabilize the domestic situation. Investigations against the president’s closest allies could be neutralized, and in the future, there could be another attempt to bring the anti‑corruption agencies under control.

The second viewpoint is the exact opposite. Its supporters are convinced that restoring the powers will strike at the entire power vertical. NABU and SAPO have already shown oppositional tendencies, and after regaining their authority, investigations into Zelensky’s entourage (including Yermak, Mindich, and Svyrydenko) will accelerate. Deals between suspects and investigators are possible, leading to information leaks and new scandals.

The main threat is the loss of influence over parliament. Currently, MPs’ loyalty is maintained by fear of law enforcement structures controlled by the Presidential Office (Bankova Street). If NABU and SAPO gain freedom of action, a new center of pressure on MPs will emerge. This could lead to the breakup of the presidential faction and the loss of the mono‑majority, and thus — loss of control over the government.

In that case, the parliamentary majority could remove Yermak and Svyrydenko, form a new cabinet, and turn Zelensky into a nominal leader. In the extreme scenario — push him toward resignation.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that Europe has, for the first time, resorted to open pressure, threatening to freeze funding. Previously, such leverage was used only by the United States. Now, having felt the effectiveness of financial conditions, the EU may begin directly influencing personnel decisions and domestic policy in Ukraine.

According to sources, if the law restoring NABU’s powers is passed, the only question is how quickly the changes will begin — within days, weeks, or months.