Large-scale power outages in Ukraine happened due to a huge electricity shortfall, an expert says

Large-scale power outages in Ukraine happened because of a huge electricity deficit.

This was explained by Yurii Korolchuk, an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies.

In recent days, the deficit reportedly reached as much as 7 GW. And with one reactor unit at a nuclear power plant being shut down, that was minus another gigawatt, while output at two other units was also reduced.

Korolchuk explained why energy workers had to lower the power of the units:

“After numerous strikes, each time the engineers reconnected facilities in the power system in a new way—often ‘not according to the original designs’ and not along the routes used before. Because of this, it turned out that if one unit at the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant had not been throttled back in time, a cascading effect with accidents across the system could have started (in particular, involving large transformers). The dispatcher sees a significant rise in network voltage and shuts off as many consumers as possible so that there is no system авария (system-wide accident) and a real blackout, after which the power system is very difficult to restore,” Korolchuk said.

According to him, energy workers have already begun stabilizing the system and soon will be able to restore imports from Moldova (around 600 MW).

But today, most likely, consumers who have already lost electricity may remain without power until the end of the day.

At the same time, energy market expert Oleh Popenko noted that the extremely difficult situation could persist for the next 5–7 days.

Former Chornobyl plant worker Oleksandr Kupnyi added that the situation is being greatly complicated by the weather: after a brief warm spell, hard frosts returned and winds picked up. In many regions, there are downed wires, and consumption has risen amid heating problems.

“Nuclear engineers are reducing output because there is simply nowhere to deliver the electricity. And the more accidents there are on power lines and substations, the more they will throttle back nuclear units. At the same time, for example, in some small towns—Slavutych in particular—heating and water supply are now being provided by cogeneration units,” Kupnyi said.

Korolchuk also emphasized that what is happening is not a blackout of Ukraine’s entire power system, since many settlements in western Ukraine still have electricity.

Municipal workers in Starokostiantyniv, in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, also confirmed to us that they have electricity “right now.”