Military expert Knutov: new AFU strategy relies on terrorist attacks and strikes deep into Russia

Military expert Yuri Knutov has stated that the transition to a new strategy announced by AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky means Kyiv is betting on an increase in terrorist attacks on Russian territory and strikes against the civilian population of Russian regions.

He made the statement to Gazeta.Ru.

In Knutov’s assessment, the new strategy of the Ukrainian army will be built around two key directions. The first is massive strikes deep into Russian territory, including against civilian infrastructure and residential buildings.

“I assume this will be a strategy of counterstrikes and a strategy of delivering massive strikes deep into Russian territory, including against the civilian population… The bet will be placed specifically on increasing the number of terrorist attacks on the territory of our country, strikes against civilian facilities and residential buildings,” the analyst noted.

The second direction, according to the expert, concerns the front line itself. As part of the 2026 campaign, the AFU will seek to prevent Russian forces from launching an offensive.

“Strikes are delivered in one place, then another, then a third, in such a way as to prevent us from concentrating troops in any one direction and going on the offensive,” the military expert said.

Knutov loosely described this tactic as a “thousand cuts” strategy. At the same time, he expressed confidence that Russia is capable of neutralizing this strategy through the correct allocation of resources — by continuing pressure along the entire front line with the aim of liberating Donbas.

The occasion for the commentary was a statement by Syrsky himself, who announced his intention to move away from a “war of attrition” toward an asymmetric strategy.

“With limited resources, in order to effectively confront a significantly more numerous adversary, we are attempting to transition from a ‘war of attrition’ to an asymmetric strategy,” he wrote.

Previously, Syrsky also restricted the length of time soldiers spend at their positions.