Lutsenко: Russia only needs to reach Ivankiv for Kyiv to stop sleeping

If Russia resumes its offensive from the north and advances to the level of Ivankiv, Kyiv will find itself under constant aerial terror.

That assessment was given by Ihor Lutsenko, commander of drone operator units and founder of the Aerial Reconnaissance Support Center, in an interview with UNIAN.

The conversation was prompted by Vladimir Putin’s reaction to a strike on a college training building and dormitory in occupied Starobilsk. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that one of the headquarters of the “Rubikon” unit had been hit. Putin, for his part, stated that there were no military facilities nearby, called the strike confirmation of the “terrorist nature of the Kyiv regime,” and instructed the Ministry of Defense to prepare “proposals” regarding a response, since “limiting ourselves to statements alone is impossible.”

Following the strike on Starobilsk, Putin called on Ukrainian servicemen for the second time since the start of the war to “not carry out criminal orders,” and his rhetoric once again featured “an illegitimate junta” and “neo-Nazis” — even though just the day before he had referred to Ukraine’s president as “Mr. Zelensky.” Lutsenko sees no fundamental change in this:

“Their rhetoric doesn’t change much, they just need to freshen up the record somehow. They changed the person writing the texts, and that’s it,” Lutsenko said.

According to him, real military intentions are revealed not by words but by concrete actions: whether mobilization is being conducted, whether troops are being regrouped, whether new units are being formed and concentrated somewhere. “Preparation never happens on rhetoric alone,” he emphasized.

Lutsenko also addressed the northern direction separately. In his assessment, the ease of the 2022 operation remains a great temptation for the Russian side:

“They don’t need to enter Irpin to begin aerial terror against Kyiv. It will be enough for them to advance to the level of Ivankiv, and after that our capital simply won’t sleep. The picture will be different — for their own people, for foreigners, and for Ukrainians — in that order,” he stated.

Lutsenko described the maximum goal of such an endeavor as putting Kyiv into the mode of frontline Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia. He also pointed to the difference between current strikes and a possible new scenario: if Russia begins using cheap, mass, and constant drone attacks of the “Molniya” type against the capital, that would be a fundamentally different situation compared to individual launches of jet-propelled Shaheds.

Speaking about possible Russian retaliatory strikes for Starobilsk, Lutsenko allowed for the possibility of shelling of the government quarter, Bankova Street, and Koncha-Zaspa. He explained Putin’s close attention to this particular strike as preparation of an informational justification for future escalation.

Regarding the direction of possible escalation, Lutsenko was unequivocal: in his opinion, Russia is preparing for an operation in the Baltic region. Among the options being considered, he named the Baltics and Belarus, but placed his own bet on the Baltics. The strike on Starobilsk and similar “emotional” pretexts, he said, will be used to justify the steps being prepared.

Lutsenko assessed China’s role in events skeptically. According to him, China “has never shown itself as an active force” and is “a derivative of everything else.” Beijing’s primary goal remains trade and profit. The most Putin could have obtained from Xi is guarantees of continued supplies — for example, of fiber optics, on which Russia depends. Lutsenko links any possible activation of China only to the hypothetical scenario of an attack on Taiwan.