Budanov: escalation must reach its peak before the war ends in 2026

Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office Kyrylo Budanov has said that the active phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine could end in 2026, but warned that escalation must first reach its peak before the parties can return to diplomacy.

Budanov’s interview was published by RBC-Ukraine on July 7.

“There is still a chance, and in the spring the negotiations were going well. Now we have all entered a phase of escalation. To move toward de-escalation, escalation usually has to reach its peak first,” Budanov said.

Budanov, who previously headed Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, categorically ruled out any territorial or constitutional concessions in exchange for ending the war. As an example, he posed a rhetorical question: “Do you really think that recognizing Russian as a second state language will make them return Crimea?” In June, he stated that ending the “hot phase” before winter was a task set by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Speaking about the connection between military operations and the negotiating process, Budanov stressed that continued military success is necessary to maintain Western support.

“The battlefield can never be separated from negotiations. Everyone loves winners. Nobody respects losers,” he said, referring to securing continued support from the United States.

Budanov also noted that Ukraine’s expanding campaign of strikes on Russian-occupied Crimea is aimed at cutting Moscow’s southern supply lines. On Monday, Ukrainian kamikaze drones caused a complete power outage across the entire peninsula, hitting substations, military bases, and ports.

Separately, President Zelensky told the Financial Times that the decisive front of the war has shifted from land and sea to the air. “The battle in the sky will determine the outcome of the war,” he said, pointing to a shortage of anti-ballistic missiles as a key vulnerability for Ukraine. At the G7 summit in mid-June, leaders agreed to increase sanctions pressure on Russia and provide Ukraine with additional air defense systems.

According to Reuters, in late June Russian hardliners urged Putin to abandon diplomacy and move toward further escalation — angered by Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory and by what they see as the failure of the American negotiating process.

Budanov warned that Russia retains the capacity for another wave of mobilization, and that Russian military planning documents envision readiness for possible operations beyond Ukraine by early 2027. He stressed, however, that readiness does not mean such a decision has already been made.