Ukraine’s grain exports collapse by 75% due to Russian strikes on Black Sea ports

Ukraine’s grain exports plunged 75% year-on-year in the first two weeks of August, as Russian strikes on Black Sea port infrastructure have effectively paralyzed maritime shipping.

The data were published on Wednesday and are cited by European Business Magazine.

According to the publication, no foreign cargo vessel has entered or left the ports of Greater Odessa since July 22. The ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne handle the bulk of Ukraine’s grain and metal exports, but they have been idle for three weeks at the height of the wheat harvest. Ukraine’s port administration has recorded more than 70 strikes on Black Sea port infrastructure and 62 strikes on vessels — in July and early August alone.

Ukrainian farmers on the brink of financial ruin

Around 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports normally pass through the Black Sea. The agricultural sector accounts for nearly 60% of the country’s export revenues. Ukraine is among the world’s largest producers of wheat, corn, and sunflower seeds.

“There is nowhere to put this grain. For farmers, it is a real catastrophe,” Ukrainian farmer Serhiy Rybalko from Zhytomyr region told Reuters, standing beside a nearly full grain storage facility.

Domestic grain prices have fallen by around 30% due to accumulated surpluses, and many farmers are being forced to sell wheat below cost. According to Rybalko, his farm alone requires around 20 million hryvnias (approximately €387,000) per month during the harvest period to service loans, pay wages, and purchase fuel — money that is currently unavailable. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy has warned that the shortfall in grain storage capacity could reach 11 million tonnes, especially as the corn harvest is expected next month.

Global consequences and narrowing options

Ukraine supplies around 6% of the world’s wheat and 11% of its corn. Denys Marchuk, deputy chairman of Ukraine’s main agricultural union, warned of the threat of famine in import-dependent countries in Africa and the Middle East if supplies are not secured in time.

Ukraine’s central bank estimated the country’s losses from the blockade at approximately €2.2 billion in lost foreign currency revenues in the second half of 2026. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy expects total exports in the 2026/27 marketing year to fall from 64.4 million tonnes to approximately 29.6 million tonnes.

Alternative routes are becoming increasingly difficult to secure. Relations with Poland have deteriorated amid competition from cheaper Ukrainian grain, water levels on the Danube have dropped, and Russia has struck railway infrastructure linking Ukraine to its western borders. Kyiv has requested €220 million from the European Commission to support farmers during the autumn sowing season.

A new kind of blockade

Unlike in 2022, when Russia physically blockaded the ports, this time strikes and war-risk insurance have made sea voyages economically unviable, forcing shipowners to voluntarily cease operations. Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky told Politico that crews “are simply afraid,” and that shipping companies suspended operations after a Russian missile strike sank a cargo vessel carrying corn in July, killing 10 people.

“Ukraine must be prepared for the economic consequences of the port blockade to prove no less severe, or even worse, than last time,” said Oleg Nivievsky of the Kyiv School of Economics.