Blockade of Ukrainian ports threatens up to 30% rise in global agricultural prices

A prolonged blockade of Ukrainian ports could cause agricultural commodity prices on the global market to rise by up to 30%.

This was stated by Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotsky, in an interview with Hromadske.

According to the minister, the main wave of price increases will begin after the harvest season ends. So far, no significant impact on global prices has been observed — due to the large volume of the new harvest.

“There is a lot of the harvest itself, so for now there is no significant impact on prices from this. Unlike 2022, when exports stopped in March, when stocks were already being drawn down — the impact on prices was felt immediately back then. So if this situation continues for a few more months, it will definitely have an effect. We estimate that prices could rise by as much as 30%. In 2022, on average, the price increase affected all products — 24.5%. But for some it was even double that,” Vysotsky said.

If the blockade continues, up to 30 million tonnes of agricultural products may fail to reach international markets, the minister warned.

Vysotsky also explained that low grain prices on Ukraine’s domestic market do not automatically mean cheaper bread and other products. There is a time lag between changes in raw material costs and the price of the final product, and the end price is additionally affected by the cost of fuel, electricity, and logistics.

According to the minister’s assessment, if exports are not resumed, prices for finished agricultural products in Ukraine will stop rising in the autumn. Whether prices will actually fall depends on other components.

Earlier, Vysotsky reported that Ukrainian agricultural exports in August 2026 could fall to 1.33 million tonnes, which is 54% less compared to July. According to him, this would be the lowest August figure for the entire period of the full-scale war.